But a recent article by Matthew Parris (go on, read it) gave me a chill - it crystallised what I had been mentally analysing since the 24th June. That is : Have Britain's racists have decided Britain's future?
Oh come on. Really? Isn't it England's working class railing against the Metropolitan elite ? Years of them being failed by politicians? Protest votes against years of austerity (albeit austerity not directly caused by the EU) ? People with vision and confidence in Britain who see much more opportunity outside the EU?
I need to stress again - not all Leave voters are racist. Many of them know way more about the EU than I do, and many had a clear idea of Britain's future as a world player outside the single market. However, we need to face up to some uncomfortable truths here.
Remember the British Swocial Attitudes Survey in 2014 ? The one that concluded that at least a third of Britons openly identify as holding racist views? That's uncomfortable. Did they all vote in the Referendum? Who knows, but let's make some assumptions.
Assumption 1 : The survey was an accurate reflection of the number of openly-racist people in the UK.
Assumption 2 : Of the thirty million (plus) votes cast, a third of them were people who are openly prepared to state they hold racist views. Let's assume therefore ten million "openly" racists voted, and that it was their racist views that drove their vote.
Assumption 3 : In any "normal" election or referendum, the votes of these individuals will not gravitate to any one option on the ballot paper. They will be evenly spread across the ballot choices. (Unless of course, you're prepared to state Labour/Tory voters are more racist than the other). Of course UKIP votes muddy the waters a bit here, but let's continue.
Assumption 4 : The vast majority of these individuals voted "Leave".
If these assumptions are correct (and I accept they are open to challenge) it leads to a very uncomfortable conclusion. That is (to continue David Cameron's nautical analogies) that Britain now has an openly racist hand on the tiller. How so?
The "ten million racists" - if we imagine a "normal" scenario whereby their votes would have been evenly spread across the ballot options (thus nullifying their overall influence) - we need to re-assign five million votes from "Leave" to "Remain". That makes for stark reading:
Ludicrously simplistic? Of course. Who's a racist and who isn't ? Indeed. However, in the days following the result, I had personal experience of Leave voters who - when asked about their reasons - replied "too many Romanian beggars on the streets". No other answer provided.
And that, dear reader, is racist.
So the question is this : was there a significant group of voters who voted Leave purely out of racist motivation?
You may think no. Excellent: sleep well. However, you may think yes. If so, how big was that group? It only needs to be around four million for the result to have been effectively skewed.
I was on the losing side in 2014's Scottish Independence referendum, but I accepted it. I accepted that the argument had not been made and that a clear majority of Scots believed (with the best of intentions) that Scotland's best future lay within the UK.
But the EU referendum feels horribly different. Some empirical evidence, coupled with some flimsy methodology, anecdotal evidence and personal experience leaves me unable to answer "no". I think it was yes, and I think it was statistically significant. I think the "actual" result was much, much tighter and that naked, racist opinion had the casting vote.
The "ten million racists" - if we imagine a "normal" scenario whereby their votes would have been evenly spread across the ballot options (thus nullifying their overall influence) - we need to re-assign five million votes from "Leave" to "Remain". That makes for stark reading:
"Leave" : 12.5 million votes and "Remain": 21 million votes.
Ludicrously simplistic? Of course. Who's a racist and who isn't ? Indeed. However, in the days following the result, I had personal experience of Leave voters who - when asked about their reasons - replied "too many Romanian beggars on the streets". No other answer provided.
And that, dear reader, is racist.
So the question is this : was there a significant group of voters who voted Leave purely out of racist motivation?
You may think no. Excellent: sleep well. However, you may think yes. If so, how big was that group? It only needs to be around four million for the result to have been effectively skewed.
I was on the losing side in 2014's Scottish Independence referendum, but I accepted it. I accepted that the argument had not been made and that a clear majority of Scots believed (with the best of intentions) that Scotland's best future lay within the UK.
But the EU referendum feels horribly different. Some empirical evidence, coupled with some flimsy methodology, anecdotal evidence and personal experience leaves me unable to answer "no". I think it was yes, and I think it was statistically significant. I think the "actual" result was much, much tighter and that naked, racist opinion had the casting vote.
So, congratulations "Leave". You fought a winning campaign. But you need to be honest and recognise that your economic argument utterly tanked. You managed to corner the racist market. As you lead us into an economic and cultural dark alley, please raise a glass and toast Britain's racists.
You couldn't have done it without 'em.
